CLINTON'S NUMBERS

Before we get to the topic today, once again those wild and crazy lawyers North Of The Border intrude upon our thoughts. Just when you were sure things could not get any crazier in "fun city" comes this little gem: Criminal Defense attorney Gary Ostrow flew to Tallahassee on May 2 to file papers to challenge incumbant Public Defender Howard Finklestein. But before he could get out of town, Ostrow managed to get himself ARRESTED FOR POSSESSION OF COCAINE. That's right- The Clerk's office before noon, and the County Jail by midnight. What a wild campaign ride indeed. The Sun Sentinel has all the wacky details
HERE.

Now on with the show.


Hillary Clinton will not drop out of the race for the democratic nomination, and Rumpole is going to tell you why certain numbers tell the story.

76 and 80. If John McCain wins the presidency, he will be 76 when he runs for reelection and we would have to elect a president who will serve when he is 80 years old. That makes his reelection an unlikely scenario.

1992. When was the last time a party ran after holding the White House for 12 years? 1992. And despite winning a war, President Bush could not get reelected. You have to go back to Roosevelt/Truman to find a successor President from the same party (Truman) winning reelection (over Dewey, and by the way "Truman Beats Dewey" is just up in the Herald's Breaking News section right now.)

So if McCain getting reelected is unlikely, what is in Clinton's best interest if she cannot get nominated now? We propose that she intends to attack Obama until she has separated him from every last independent voter, older democratic female, and working class disaffected (read "white) male, thus handing the election to McCain and giving her the best chance to win in 2012.

2016. What does her getting the nomination as Vice President do for her? Not much. She would have to wait until 2016 to run again for President. Who were the last two sitting Vice Presidents to win the Presidency? George Herbert Walker Bush in 1988 and Martin Van Buren in 1837. And both of them served only one term.

The last Vice President to be elected to two terms was Richard Milhous Nixon and he was not a sitting Vice President when elected. The elections of Nixon and Ronald Regan also give hope to Clinton. They were elected and re-elected after having run for the Presidency and lost. Nixon lost the general election in 1960 and Regan lost his challenge to Ford for the Republican nomination in 1976. Nixon waited eight years before trying again and finally winning. The last person to get his party's nomination twice in a row after losing the first time was Adlai Stevenson who lost in 1952 and 1956. Stevenson ended up heroically staring down and cross examining Valerian Zorin for Kennedy at the UN during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The prospects of Obama getting the nomination twice in a row are dim. "He couldn't beat McCain in 2008" would be the analysis, "so lets give Clinton a shot now".

So if you are Hillary Clinton and have come so close to your dream of being elected President, and if you are willing to spend your personal fortune and make all the other sacrifices necessary to achieve your dream, what is the play here? Take second place on the ticket and watch it all slip away, or give the election to McCain so you can run and win in four years?

We think Clinton will not give up. We think she will fight right to the convention this summer, attacking Obama at every chance she gets. This is the only way we see her getting her chance to be President for eight years, even if it means starting four years from now.

See you in court, where not even a lowly county court candidate would give our political analytical skills the time of day.

WISE WORDS

(David Ranck Update below)

"Do we have the right here in the United States to say that we're going to kill tens of thousands, and make millions of peoples, as we have, refugees, kill women and children as we have...I very seriously question whether we have that right...when we use bombs, when a village is destroyed and civilians are killed...this is a moral obligation and moral responsibility for us here in the United States."

Who said that?

Not Barak Obama. Not Hillary Clinton. Not John McCain. Not even our favourite John Edwards.

Those wise words were said on November 26, 1967, on the television show Face the Nation, by Senator Robert Kennedy.

We substituted "Bombs" for "napalm" to keep the statement current. And of course the Senator was talking about Vietnam.
It just seems like we haven't learned very much in 41 years.

Except how to kill. We've never forgotten to do that, and we certainly do it more efficiently. Our own soldiers still get killed while they are killing, but we have managed to learn how to kill hundreds of thousands of humans while limiting our own deaths to less than five thousand.

So we are more efficient killers.
It just doesn't seem something to crow about.

In the 82 days after Robert Kennedy announced his decision to challenge a sitting president from his own party, his president announced he would not run for re-election; Dr. Martin King was assassinated, our cities burned, and then Robert Kennedy was assassinated. In 82 days we buried three leaders- one figuratively and two literally, and our world was irrevocably changed.

In twice that time- in less than 180 days, we will elect a new president. We can change our world again, for the better. Lets see just how much we've learned in 41 years.

See You In Court.

Update. Mr. Ranck has published an explanation of the events surrounding how he obtained the email he published, and what has occurred since then.
RANCK UPDATE

SY GAER MEMORIAL

FACDL-Miami Invites you to theDedication of the Sy Gaer Memorial

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

12 NoonRichard E. Gerstein Justice Building

2nd Floor

Rumpole: Finally.

THE DEATH OF LEONARDO BARQUIN

Leonardo Barquin was shot and killed by Miami Police Officer Jorge Espinosa. Barquin was one of two men who burglarized a home. Espinosa arrived and shot Barquin in the back and killed him.

Espinosa gave a statement that he saw Barquin with a gun. No gun was found. The co-defendant gave a statement that neither of the two men had a firearm.

This post is NOT about whether Espinosa had just cause to fire his weapon.

This post is about how the Dade County State Attorneys Office handles police shootings.

Here is what we know: ASA David Ranck was assigned to the shooting. Those of you who know Mr. Ranck know him to be one of the finest, most experienced, honest, and ethical lawyers the SAO has ever been lucky to have.

Mr. Ranck was a career prosecutor with 20 plus years experience when he handled the investigation into this shooting. Or should we say that Mr. Ranck was assigned the shooting. Because when he had the temerity to question whether the shooting was justified HE WAS SUMMARILY REMOVED FROM THE INVESTIGATION.

Secret meetings were held behind his back. When Mr. Ranck refused to clear the officer immediately at the scene (or soon thereafter) Police Major Angus Butler called and complained about Mr. Ranck. Ranck was soon removed from the investigation. He was chastised for telling the lead homicide investigator that he had questions about the shooting. He was told that he had no authority to speak for the State Attorneys Office.

Think about it. An experienced prosecutor is assigned to a police shooting. The deceased is shot in the back. He does not have a firearm. The PBA lawyer representing the Officer is pressuring the homicide investigator to get the prosecutor's position on the matter. The prosecutor responds to a phone call.... and later is removed from the shooting and chastised for doing his job.

But enough about our feelings.

Below is the link to the blockbuster email from Mr. Ranck to all your favorite ASA's. Howard Pohl. Abe Laeser. Don Horn. Kathleen Hoague. Susan Dechovitz.

Here, in Mr. Ranck's own words, are the problems with how the SAO handles police shootings. Draw your own conclusions.

RANCK EMAIL

We are left with the sad thought that it is just too bad this came out a few days after the qualifying deadline for State Attorney.

From the Christmas day massacre to possible police shooting cover-ups, to morale lower than President Bush's approval ratings, something just doesn't seem right at the SAO.


See You In Court.

ps. When you go to the site, which is a blogger site, look at the statement under "about me"= "pre-unemployed". That would be a tragedy indeed.
Perhaps the legal community can help here.

SPECIAL REQUEST

TO THE PERSON WHO SENT RUMPOLE AN EMAIL WITH A LINK TO A BLOG THAT CONTAINS A COPY OF AN EMAIL

you sent it this morning. We attempted to respond to the email with the aol address but it was bounced back, probably from your spam filter. Please add our address as a safe email. We really need to speak with you before we run this.

Thanks.

Rumpole.

HERALD SCOOPED

The facts is dear Readers, our wonderful El Capitan scooped the Herald on Friday with the news of the judicial elections.

The Captain had it here first, and unlike the on-line articles in the Herald's Breaking News Section, the Captain had it right.

Great Job Captain.

THE CAPTAIN REPORTS:

ELECTION UPDATE ……

The numbers are in and here they are: 35 Incumbent Judges (7 County and 28 Circuit) have been returned to office without opposition. There are 9 contested races (1 County and 8 Circuit). Four Incumbent Judges face opposition in August (Lindsey, Shapiro, Chumbley, and Cohen). We are guaranteed at least 6 new judges, all on the Circuit Court, as the result of the retirement of Judges Eugene Fierro, Jon Gordon, Roger Silver, Leonard Glick, Stuart Simons, and Jeffrey Rosinek. (dare I say that the courthouse may be open next Yom Kippur).

On a separate note, we have a new PUBLIC DEFENDER. Carlos Martinez, Chief Assistant to BHB, has been elected, as no one has filed to run against him. On January 1, 2009 he takes over an office that has been run by Mr. Brummer for 32 years. In 1971, Brummer joined the Dade County Public Defender's Office as an Assistant Public Defender in the Appellate Division. Over the next five years, he was promoted to Chief of the Appellate Division and later to Executive Assistant to the Public Defender. In 1976, Bennett Brummer was elected Dade County’s Public Defender, and in November 2004 he was re-elected to his eighth consecutive term.

Also, Katherine Fernandez Rundle wins another four year term as our State Attorney. Ms. Rundle started her career at the SAO in 1978 and has been the State Attorney since 1993.

Now, on to the Judicial races .......

Congratulations to the following seven County Court Judges who have been reelected to a new six year term:

Victoria Brennan ............................ Cristina Miranda
Rosa Figarola ................................. Nuria Saenz
Jacqueline Schwartz ........................Antonio Arzola

Eric Hendon (whew !!!!!)

Congratulations to the following 28 Circuit Court Judges who have been reelected to a new six year term:

Ivan Fernandez ...................... Celeste Hardee Muir
Mary Barzee Flores ................. Jerald Bagley
Diane Ward ............................ Sarah Zabel
Amy Steele Donner ..................Kevin Emas
Margarita Esquiroz ................ Thomas Wilson Jr.
Jose Rodriguez ........ Bernard Shapiro - NOT (sorry Bernie - last minute filing)
Ronald Friedman ................... Marc Schumacher
Leon Firtel ............................ Jacqueline Hogan Scola
Daryl Trawick ......................Robert Scola
Peter Lopez ......................... Sandy Karlan
Ronald Dresnick .................. Victoria Sigler
Joseph Farina ..................... Reemberto Diaz
Orlando Prescott ................ Dava Tunis
Roberto Pineiro ................. Beatrice Avgherino Butchko

Spencer Eig (in a last minute decision, it appears that Roniel Rodriguez has decided not to challenge Judge Eig).

For all 35 of you, it’s nice to know that you will be able to avoid the unemployment lines until at least the year 2014.

Unfortunately, for the rest, it’s a long hot summer ahead of breakfasts in Goulds, lunches in Hialeah and dinners in Aventura, as you make your way across this large and great county of ours, meeting and greeting voters, holding fundraisers and begging for checks from members of the bar, all the while with a smile on your face (and Purell in your pocket). The campaign begins anew, May 2 – August 26, 2008, and for some, it may drag on until November 4th. At least 116 days of campaigning …..

The contested elections:

COUNTY COURT:

Group 42:
Lisa Lesperance vs. Norma Lindsey (I)

CIRCUIT COURT:

Group 11:
Jorge Cueto vs. Josie Perez Velis

Group 18:
Migna Sanchez-Llorens vs. Manny Segarra (I have eliminated Tauler)

Group 19:
Yvonne Colodny vs. Patricia Kopco vs. Stephen Millan

Group 38:
Mario Garcia vs. Stacy Glick

Group 50:
Ricardo Corona vs. Abby Cynamon

Group 51:
Marcia Caballero vs. Douglas Chumbley (I)

Group 55:
Jeri Beth Cohen (I) vs. Abbie Cuellar

Group 57:

Bernard Shapiro (I) vs. Denise Scanziani (last minute filing)

Group 63:
Maria Sampedro-Iglesia vs. NO-ONE - YOU ARE A WINNER !!!!!

Over the course of the next 16 weeks, we will attempt to feature each of the 11 contested races and open it up for discussion as to whom are the most qualified candidates to wear the robe and hold the gavel.

Congratulations and good luck.

CAPTAIN OUT ..........

D DAY

DOS DE MAYO

D DAY

The day our wonderful robed readers will find out if they have opposition. Will the summer be spent knocking off around 3PM and squeezing in a round of golf or a massage at the Four Seasons on Brickell (we highly recommend their spa) or trudging to endless chicken dinners at such hot spots as the Hialeah Kiwanis Club or the evening card rooms at Aventura condos?

Like the German Atlantic wall (and we are ever mindful of the problems we ran into the last time we used a WWII analogy) Judges have their hired guns- political consultants, lawyer-friends, and the rumor is one even hired new Dolphin Offensive Lineman Jake Long- manning the wall in Tallahassee. These politicos are ready, willing, and able to tackle if necessary any challenger who marches up at the last minute to file their papers to run against a particular Judge.

If you haven't seen it, it is a spectacle not to be missed.

Gary Cooper in High Noon it is not.

And yet, at high noon, ask not dear robed readers for whom the bell tolls, because for some of you, it tolls for thee.

Think March of the Penguins, plus the 1st and 29th Infantry Divisions landing at Omaha Beach, with a little of WWW wrestling thrown in for good measure.

People laugh. People cry and beg. Promises are made by these political consultants that they can never keep: "I'll make you a Judge next election guaranteed. Pick your spot. Third DCA? You got it, just don't file against my county court judge." There are scuffles, and shouts, and more cell phone usage than a Britney Spears appearance outside of a Hollywood courtroom.

Check this blog for updates throughout the day, handled in a most capable fashion by El Capitan.

See You In Court Monday, where some Judge who is sleeping soundly tonight, will be sitting there with a very sour face Monday morning, the bell having tolled for them.